Jul
18
Where can we get more visitors?
Filed Under Sunrise on KGMB9
With visitor traffic ebbing from the record levels of a year or two ago, there has been much discussion of possible sources of additional visitors.
A thoughtful post by a reader of this blog (check out the comments from time to time) set me to thinking about this.
He correctly notes that most Chinese tourism is tour groups. The significance of that is that we may be able to lure regular charter flights even if we don’t have direct scheduled airlift from China.
I had remarked on the air that the potential of Chinese tourism here isn’t as great as some people say, because there are no direct air connections.
Everyone who pushes Chinese tourism points out that it’s the world’s biggest outbound tourist market, which is true, but it’s also true that the vast majority visit countries adjacent to China. In fact, most visit the countries adjacent to their home provinces.
But that doesn’t mean we can’t make a good living showing hospitality to the Chinese; it just means, let’s be realistic about the scale of the potential market.
South Korea, a nation of 50 million and Asia’s third biggest economy, has more immediate potential because it has scheduled KAL airlift from Seoul.
Taiwan has about 25 million people and direct China Airlines connections to Honolulu.
It would be difficult for these places ever to send us as many visitors as we get from Japan, which has almost 130 million people on as much land as California. But it may be possible to get enough to make up for the decline from peak levels of Japanese visitors.
The Hawaii Tourism Authority has contractors working on it.
The Philippines, with 90 million people, has greater potential now than formerly, now that Hawaiian Airlines has joined PAL in flying between Honolulu and Manila. But like China, the Philippines may not be as big a potential market as it looks.
A fifth of Hawaii residents have ethnic ties to the Philippines, but a very large number hail from Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur, and these two provinces together have a population of only about 1.1 million, roughly the same as Hawaii’s population. And it takes a lot of Philippine pesos to afford a Hawaii vacation.
(The Philippine peso is so low against most world currencies that expatriate Filipinos can work comparatively menial jobs in other countries, mail a small amount of money home, and when it arrives it’s a fortune. The last time I checked, 11% of the entire Philippine GDP was remittances from expats working on cruise ships or as au pairs in Dubai or Hong Kong, etc.)
It won’t surprise me if the real tourist traffic winds up going the other way. Most Hawaii residents with family ties to the Philippines are curious about the country and would enjoy visiting if the amenities are good.
My online correspondent mentioned that Canadians aren’t much of a solution to the tourism problem because they don’t spend much. This has actually changed recently. Many Canadians are regarded as cheap by the people selling $50 sunglasses for $250 on Kalakaua Ave. I wouldn’t say cheap, I’d say smart — they take DaBus to da outlets in Waikele. And you know what? A lot of Japanese visitors on their third or fourth visits are that smart, too. But the Canadians, to get back to them, have been spending a lot more this year as a result of the Canadian dollar reaching parity with the American dollars. (A few years ago it took 1.25 Canadian to buy 1.00 American; the change has put Hawaii on sale for Canadians.)
Anywhere else we can get visitors from?
New Zealand has 4 million people, most of whom have an appreciation of indigenous culture that makes them especially welcome here. But a New Zealander who just wants sun and fun can more easily visit Tahiti.
Australia has 22 million people — Sydney alone has 4 million — and ample direct air connections from Qantas/Jetstar and Hawaiian. So far, though, many Aussies prefer Bali.
It may be that the easiest way to recover lost visitor traffic will be to work with travel agents on the U.S. mainland to make Hawaii more convenient, affordable or fun for mainland Americans.
Using the analogy of arguments for Chinese tourism, it’s a huge market, there’s no visa problem, and these people have ethnic ties to us!
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Much of what you say is right on target.
However, I’d like to point out that direct charter flights from China will begin on July 26. Beijing-based Mega Global Airways Limited will offer 3 flights a week from Tianjin to Honolulu on an ongoing basis. A second set of weekly charters from Hangzhou is also scheduled to launch in October from the same airlines (PBN May 27, 2008). So the possibility of an increase is there, and will not be as limited by flights as we’d like to think. It’s nice that someone in China thinks Hawaii will be a profitable travel destination.
Canadians numbers to Hawaii are way up (+28.6% YTD), and many are changing their condo-staying, canned-goods-in-suitcase travel habits, to hotel-living, 4-star-restaurant-dining vacationers. Which is good, but their per-person per-day spending is still way below that of the Japanese (currently, it is $156.90, while Japan is near $288.70 YTD).
Our draw to Oceania is not so much fun in the sun, but rather shopping. Import taxes in Australia inflate brand-name goods, so that $400 Sergio Rossi shoes or a $5000 Hermes handbag here could very well cost 3 times as much back home.
The real problem is that much of Hawaii’s new-found gleam is related to the weak dollar, which as you pointed out in a previous post, is more of a silver lining than a saving grace.
Why has Hawaii lost its’ appeal to the international visitor? What has Waikiki done wrong?
We’re just not new and exiting anymore.