Hawaii Superferry boards its 125,000th passenger Tuesday. June traffic was well above May, July was way above June, and August, if not as busy, still reflects strong interest in the catamaranic connection between Oahu and Maui.

Adm. Tom Fargo, the new CEO, says revenues are up a lot, and despite higher fuel prices it looks like profitability will be within reach after the second ferry enters revenue service in the first half of 2009. The second vessel is more built than not at the shipyard in Mobile, Ala.

A report due out Tuesday was to show that Superferry was logging good performance on most environmental metrics, and Fargo, who appeared Tuesday morning on “Sunrise,” said he’s decided that to be successful Superferry must “be the gold standard” of environmental behavior.

He said he goes on walkabout on the ferry and watches some of the vehicle inspections himself. “It’s interesting,” he said. “I’ve been thinking of taking some officials down there to watch.”

The second ferry, to be delivered early next year if the schedule doesn’t slip, is tagged for sailing between Honolulu and Kawaihae. (Kauai is off the boards until or unless Kauai residents gain more confidence that the service is environmentally responsible, though Fargo said he does think support for the service is growing on the Garden Island.)

I still think the biggest threat to Superferry is economic, not cultural or environmental. Rough seas in the winter could significantly impact passenger traffic.

A Pew study finds that, when people are asked what they listened to, watched or read yesterday for news, 52% report watching local TV news, the only medium to draw a response by more than half of those surveyed.

The rest of the responses:

  • Network morning news: 22%.
  • Nightly network news: 29%.
  • Newspaper: 34%.
  • Radio news: 35%.
  • Online for news three or more days a week: 37%.
  • Cable news: 39%.

As recently as four years ago, only 29% got that much news online, and all of the other options drew similar or higher responses.

Back in 1993, twice as many said they regularly watched nightly network news and almost twice as many read newspapers daily.

I would suggest to you that it is a significant change in society, that a generation ago, if something was on the nightly network news, at least two thirds of the nation experienced it in a similar way. Today there is virtually no public event that more than a third of the nation will experience similarly.

We see this phenomenon in politics particularly, where many people view public discourse only through the filters of websites, cable and radio programming that represent the same views they already hold. We all know people who vote for a presidential candidate who does not win and cannot believe the outcome because the campaign coverage they experienced constantly reinforced their pre-existing views, and, unintentionally, prevented them from fully realizing that there were intelligent members of the electorate who felt otherwise.

Any fair-minded political independent will tell you that this happens in both the liberal and conservative camps, too. The Pew study was, I think, intended mainly for media people, especially those working for traditional media, to see how their public is changing, but for me there is a lesson for the average citizen, that now, more than ever, it is useful to make a point of exposing oneself to several different media, not just those that seem most congenial to one’s views.

 

 

The newly-revised economic forecast from the Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism is superficially encouraging, but on closer reading it’s a little on the ominous side.

This is what it predicts for 2008:

  • Visitor arrivals down 6.7% from last year, which would still mean 7 million plus visitors.
  • Real personal income up 0.4%, half of what was last predicted, but still keeping ahead of inflation.
  • Consumer prices, as represented by the Honolulu consumer price index, up 4.5%, more than previously expected due to high energy prices.
  • Job growth 0.2%, half of what was formerly expected, but growth is growth.
  • Hawaii real GDP (gross domestic product) annual growth speed of 1.9%, with 2% or close to it expected in each of the following three years.
No recession, no “negative growth” in any area, but, and this is the ominous bit, it all flows from an expectation of visitor arrivals down 6.7%.
And visitor arrivals are currently down more than twice that much.
Hawaii passenger airlift is down more than 13% from last year, and if anything it will get worse in the coming shoulder season.
The state’s seers may see things I don’t, but it seems reasonable to point out that it is possible for visitor tallies to come in below official expectations, and that would skew most of the other numbers lower.

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