Since the Zipper Lane went HOV-3, the daily vehicle count from 4:30 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. has usually been above 1,500. On two days — Wednesday, July 16, and Thursday, July 31 — the count topped 2,000.

The Zipper Lane had been carrying more than 3,000 vehicles a day before the state Department of Transportation changed the requirement from two occupants to three.

By my reckoning, 1,500 cars carrying three people yields more commuters than 3,000 cars carrying two. but Brennan Morioka, who is running state DOT these days, is looking ahead to another number not yet achieved: 3,000 cars carrying three occupants.

If that can be achieved, he says, those 3,000 cars will carry fully 25% of morning commuters on that corridor. Even now, 6% of the cars are carrying 14% of the commuters, and another 19% of the cars, the ones in the regular HOV-2 lanes, are carrying another 29% of the commuters.

My concern with the change was that some people, unable to find a third rider, would be driven back into the regular lanes, and say, screw it, I’ll at least get my time flexibility back, and split up to take separate cars. But there does not seem to have been much of this yet. The other lanes used to carry 19,000-20,000 cars in the 4:30 a.m.-9:00 a.m. period most mornings and this is still the case.

More later.

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